If the government shutdown goes on too long and people stop getting their food benefits (SNAP), it won’t just mean empty fridges. It could mess up the whole grocery world — from little stores in small towns to big ones like Walmart and Kroger.
Here’s the deal: SNAP isn’t just help for families. It’s also a huge part of how grocery stores make money. About 42 million Americans use it every month, spending around $100 billion a year on food — most of it in grocery stores.
That means SNAP money is like the oil that keeps the grocery machine running. Take it away, and things start to grind.
Walmart gets about a quarter of all SNAP spending — that’s around $25 billion a year. Kroger gets about 8 percent, and Albertsons about 4 percent. Smaller stores, especially in poor neighborhoods, can make half their sales from SNAP customers.
So if that money stops coming in, grocery sales could drop 2 to 5 percent nationwide — billions of dollars gone overnight. For a company making $50 billion a year, that’s like losing $2 billion just like that. And because grocery stores don’t make big profits — usually only 2 to 3 percent — they can’t handle that kind of loss easily.
What happens next? They’ll have two bad choices:
- Raise prices, or
- Close stores.
That means everyone pays more at the checkout — even people who don’t use SNAP. Prices go up not because food is more expensive to make, but because stores are trying not to go broke.
That’s why some states, like Virginia, are already getting ready for trouble. Officials say they’re worried about hunger — which is true — but they’re also worried about keeping grocery stores open and the economy from taking a hit.
Let’s be honest: in today’s world of AI, job cuts, and Wall Street greed, protecting people often comes second to protecting profits. Back in 2013, when SNAP payments were delayed just a few days, big stores saw their sales drop fast. If this shutdown lasts weeks or months, it could mean layoffs, store closings, and big problems for small towns where the grocery store is also a major employer.
So when states “get ready,” it’s fair to ask: are they trying to stop hunger — or stop their grocery chains from collapsing?
Here’s the truth: the grocery industry depends on SNAP just like families do. When the government gives out benefits, stores make money. When it doesn’t, they panic — and their lobbyists start calling politicians fast.
If the shutdown keeps going, you’ll hear two stories:
- Families can’t buy food.
- Retailers tell shareholders they’re “adjusting prices” — which means raising them.
Both stories are real, but they’re part of the same problem: America’s food system depends on government money to keep business profits steady.
So if SNAP payments stop, don’t just expect hunger — expect higher grocery prices for everyone, and a lot of powerful people making sure the money starts flowing again.
Because when the checkout line goes quiet, it’s not just the poor who suffer — it’s the people at the top who really start to sweat.
Hank Martin